Friday, January 21, 2011

End of an Era?

The New England Patriots' hopes of winning a fourth Super Bowl under Bill Belichick are gone. The New York Jets put an exclamation mark on that thought with their 28-21 beating of the Patriots last Sunday. A seven point victory may not seem like a beating, but the Patriots were dominated in every aspect of that game. They had a chance to stop the Jets towards the end of regulation and they gave up a big touchdown run to Shonn Greene. Tom Brady did lead the Pats down the field for another touchdown, but the ensuing onside kick was easily recovered by the Jets. Mark Sanchez entered the victory formation and squelched the Pats' most recent bid for glory.

Yet another season over for the Pats. No doubt there will be more questions as to what they could have done differently. This team, which seemed unbeatable after stumbling against the Browns, was supposed to go all the way. They were supposed to barrel through the playoffs and have a laugher in the Super Bowl.

Perhaps the warning bell should have been sounded after the Pats squeaked past the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. The Packers, without Aaron Rodgers, managed to make a great game out of what was supposed to be a slaughter. In fact, the Packers had the lead in that game for quite some time. A couple of interceptions by Matt Flynn boosted the Pats to victory, but it was in no way a convincing victory for the Pats. That game actually boosted the Packers at the end of the season.

This game was very similar to another late season game in recent Patriots history. Do you remember who they played week 17 of the 2007-2008 season? They played the New York Giants. The Patriots were 15-0 going into that game and the Giants had locked up their position as the number six seed in the NFC playoffs. The Giants had absolutely no reason to play their starters, but they did it anyway. Perhaps they wanted to halt the Patriots' bid for perfection before the playoffs? Well, the Patriots managed to win the game by a score of 38-35. The Giants played their best game of the season in that loss.

The playoffs started the next week. All of the Patriots were, I assume, resting in their homes while the Giants traveled to Tampa Bay for the Wild Card round. The Giants beat the Bucs 24-14. They then rolled to Dallas and beat the Cowboys 21-17. The Giants beat the Packers in overtime in the NFC Championship game. That game is memorable for a few reasons. That was Brett Favre's last game as a Packer, Favre threw a decisive interception (per usual) in overtime, and the temperature was about 4 degrees.

The Patriots handled the Jaguars and the Chargers en route to the Super Bowl. The Giants, as we all know, defeated the 18-0 Patriots, 17-14. Goodbye perfect season. Goodbye history.

Tom Brady was knocked out for the entire season in the first game of the 2008-2009 season. Matt Cassell, his replacement, led the Pats to an 11-5 record, but they missed the playoffs. Brady returned in 2009 and led the Pats to a 10-6 record and the division title. The Patriots, who were pretty weak all season, were destroyed by the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

It looked like the Patriots had it all under control this season. Sure, they lost to the Jets in week 2. Yes, they stumbled again in week 9 with a loss to the Browns, but they were dominant other than those two losses. So, what went wrong? How did the Jets dominate them so easily in the Divisional round of the playoffs?

There's a very simple answer; the Patriots do not scare anybody anymore. Their defense are the weakest link in the chain. The Patriots' defense were absolutely superb when they won three out of four Super Bowls from 2001 to 2004. Tedy Bruschi was in his prime. He was picking off passes and taking them in for six. Rodney Harrison was also in his prime and he was wreaking havoc in the secondary. They also had Mike Vrabel, Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, and several other good defensive players. Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi are probably headed to the Hall of Fame. If they're not, it's a crime.

Now, compare that defensive line-up to the one they have now. They have Vince Wilfork plugging up the middle, but he was a non-factor in their playoff loss. Patrick Chung did virtually nothing. Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, and Brandon Meriweather were completely helpless against the Jets. The Jets did exactly what the Browns did the Patriots in week 9. They pounded the ball right down the Pats' throats.

All great teams are able to win by running the ball and controlling the clock. Look at the Colts when they won the Super Bowl in 2007. Sure, they did not have the best rushing attack in the league during the regular season, but they owned the run in the post-season. They beat the Ravens 15-6 in Baltimore. Peyton kept the Ravens' defense on the field forever by milking the play clock and running the ball with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. The Ravens knew they were going to run it towards the end of the game, but they could not stop them.

The Patriots have become the most pass happy team in the league since the beginning of the 2007 season. Yes, Tom Brady set the record for passing touchdowns that season, but they lost the Super Bowl. The Patriots had no rushing attack at all and could not keep their own defense off the field. They would have won that game if they were able to run the ball at all. Instead they were handed a huge slice of humble pie.

There is no way the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl again if they do not address their defense and rushing attack. They need to improve their offensive line if they intend to run the ball. That line can barely protect Brady long enough in passing situations, but they are completely inept when it comes to run blocking.

Will the Patriots change their philosophy? Probably not. Tom Brady has kind of turned it into a Dan Marino type situation. All of the Patriots' success is way too dependent upon Tom Brady's arm and his pass protection. I know that Tom Brady has been clutch in the playoffs in the past, but it looks like his time is up as an elite quarterback. He has all of the weapons around him, but they refuse to develop a scheme that will generate maximum success.

Brady is not the greatest quarterback in NFL history. He is not even the best quarterback of this generation. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback of this generation. He has just been a victim of horrible personnel decisions by Bill Polian. You want to talk about stubborn? Let's talk about the Colts.

If I had to choose one quarterback to win me a Super Bowl right now, I'd pick Big Ben. Roethlisberger is easily the best crunch-time quarterback in the league. Remember, the Steelers did not win their fifth Super Bowl until they got Big Ben.

Has Bill Belichick done all that he can with the Patriots? Is it time for him to move on to a different team? Nothing lasts forever and I'm afraid the window of opportunity is pretty much shut in New England. Maybe Belichick can find another project to work on. Perhaps he will become a general manager? He is a disciple of Bill Parcells.

One more thought before I go. How many Super Bowls have the Patriots won since "Spygate?" Zero.


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